If you want to know why the 21-15 Washington Mystics are laying 3.5 points at the Moda Center, look no further than the defensive end of the floor. The Mystics bring a perfectly balanced 8-8 road record into this regular season matchup, but the real story is their ability to lock teams down, giving up just 82.7 points per game. Compare that to a 15-21 Portland Fire squad that plays defense like the concept is strictly optional, surrender-testing their way to a league-worst 90.9 points allowed per contest. It does not matter if Carla Leite is generating offense to the tune of 15.5 points and 6.2 assists; you simply cannot outrun that kind of defensive leakage when Sonia Citron and Shakira Austin are coming to town.
Portland’s math gets even uglier when you factor in a rotation that has been absolutely gutted. With Luisa Geiselsoder and Sarah Ashlee Barker both out for the season, the Fire simply do not have the depth to protect their 8-10 home floor against a physical Washington frontcourt. While the Fire can put up points at an 86.5 clip, they will be hard-pressed to keep pace over four quarters with a thin bench and a 166.5 game total suggesting plenty of transition track meets. The smart money says Washington’s structure wins out over Portland’s chaos, so lock in your pick on StreakChat and tell us if you are taking the Mystics to cover.