At MEWA ARENA, Mainz will need more than Nadiem Amiri’s ten‑goal engine to claw back into the top‑half chase; the 10‑point gap to Freiburg is underpinned by a tighter defence that has leaked 43 goals against the Black Forest side’s 47. Freiburg’s shape has been a high‑pressing 4‑3‑3 that forces turnovers in the final third, and Igor Matanovic’s eight‑goal haul shows their transition threat is still lethal despite a –6 goal difference. Mainz, meanwhile, have built a compact midfield pivot around Amiri, but their reliance on set‑piece delivery from Danny da Costa will be tested against a Freiburg backline that has already conceded three from corners this season. The head‑to‑head ledger reads almost level—four draws and a solitary 4‑0 loss for Mainz—so the decisive factor will be who can dominate the middle third and convert the over‑under 2.5 into a tangible edge. Freiburg’s Matthias Ginter may not be a prolific creator, but his three assists this campaign come from late‑run overlaps that could stretch Mainz’s narrow defensive block. If Mainz can tighten the press and let Amiri arrive late in the box, they could tip the scale; otherwise, Freiburg’s superior goal output and disciplined transition could see them scrape a vital three points to keep the eighth‑place push alive.