Nashville arrives at the Bronx with the league's tightest defense and a 24-point cushion atop the table, but Yankee Stadium's truncated dimensions compress the space their transition game craves. Surridge's 13 goals in 16 starts give them a finisher who punishes half-chances, and Espinoza's 11 assists from wide areas mean the supply line stays live even when possession stalls. The visitors have conceded just 17 all season — fewest in MLS by a mile — yet they've also dropped points in three of their last five road outings, a whisper of vulnerability that NYCFC's midfield must exploit early. NYCFC's shape has been porous all year — 31 goals shipped, a negative transition profile that Nashville's directness will target relentlessly — but Fernández carries 14 goals in 21 matches and Ojeda's creativity on the break offers a genuine counter-punch. The Pigeons need to win the first-ball duels in midfield and force Nashville into wide areas where the short touchlines become an ally, not a constraint. A set-piece moment feels inevitable given the aerial mismatch; whoever wins the first header in the box likely walks away with the result.