The Pacers roll into Gainbridge Fieldhouse with a 123‑point average and a modest 120 points allowed, while Dallas has been handing out 128 points per night despite scoring just 110. The 5.5‑point home spread isn’t a joke – it’s a reflection of Indiana’s higher ceiling and lower ceiling for the Mavs, who sit 0‑1 on the road and can’t afford to let another defensive lapse dictate the pace.
Dallas will lean on Cooper Flagg’s 32 PPG, but missing center Dereck Lively II and forward Caleb Martin erodes any chance of tightening up that 128‑point concession. Indiana’s Pascal Siakam (30 PPG), Tyrese Haliburton (12 APG) and Ivica Zubac (15 RPG) give them the versatility to exploit those holes. With the total set at 236.5 and the Pacers favored at –5.5 on DraftKings, the smart money leans Indy – but the Mavericks can still flip the script if they force the game below the line. Make your pick and join the debate on StreakChat.