RB Leipzig will look to double down on their 12‑goal, 7‑assist form from C. Baumgartner by keeping Union Berlin’s transition threat at bay with a tight 4‑4‑2 press that traps the Reds in their own half. The third‑tier Reds’ midfield has shown a knack for breaking opposition lines, but Leipzig’s 22‑point cushion and home‑arena advantage at Red Bull Arena give them the edge to control the tempo, cut off Union’s travel spots, and finish 3‑5 more often than not. Union Berlin, sitting 11th with a -18 goal difference, will hinge on Khedira’s 5‑goal tally and Ilic’s 8 assists to create chances from the flanks, then latch onto set pieces where they’ve been historically dangerous. With a 3.5‑over‑under on the line, any lapse in Leipzig’s defensive shape could swing the match, but the Bombers’ disciplined shape and pressure rhythm suggest they’ll manufacture the momentum needed to avoid a surprise upset.