The math is simple in the desert: you cannot consistently outrun a defense that refuses to show up, and the Phoenix Mercury are about to learn that lesson again. At 13-24 overall and a brutal 5-12 at the Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix welcomes the 22-15 Washington Mystics for a 10:00 PM EDT regular season clash on Merc+. While the Mercury can score, averaging 84.0 points per game, they give it all back and then some by bleeding 87.8 points per contest. Washington, a respectable 9-8 on the road, brings a much tighter operation that surrenders just 83.1 points per game and is fully prepared to squeeze a vulnerable home team.
The Mystics enter as 3.5-point favorites, and they have the interior muscle to back up that number. Shakira Austin is averaging 17.0 points and 9.6 rebounds, giving Washington a physical edge that should feast on a short-handed Phoenix rotation missing Kara Dunn and Shay Ciezki. Even with Kahleah Copper pouring in 21.0 points per night for the Mercury, Phoenix lacks the depth and defensive stops to keep pace over four quarters. Lock in your predictions on the 165.5 point total and head over to StreakChat to see if the rest of the room is laying the points with Washington.