The Hornets are a 5½-point favorite in a season-ender that smells like a trap—Charlotte’s 21-20 home record is barely north of meh, yet the algorithm spits out a 73-percent win probability against a Heat team that’s allergic to airplane food (17-24 away). Miami still rolls in hotter, toppling 143 and 140 in its last two, but four rotation bodies—Fontecchio, Larsson, Jovic, Smith—are stamped GTD, and the Hornets haven’t had to list anyone but PJ Hall since February.
Style tilt is clear: Miami’s 120.9-point blitz (Powell 21.7) wants a track meet, Charlotte’s 116.0 wants Ball to choreograph every possession (7.1 apvs) and keep the total under 228½. If the Heat’s walking-wounded wings can’t chase Miller & Co. off the arc, the Hornets close their regular-season ledger at 45-38 and flip the stress to the play-in bracket. Lock your side on StreakChat and let’s see who’s still standing when the buzzer kills the clock.