Tunisia will try to cling to a late‑game surge after a brutal 5‑goals‑conceded start, but Japan’s disciplined high‑press has already turned their 2‑win streak into a possession‑based threat that will be hard to break. The hosts must defend a tight 4‑5‑1 shape, using the wing‑backs’ width to contain Nakamura’s pace, while Kubo’s creative spark looks to exploit the gaps left by Tunisia’s high line. Japan’s margin of –1.5 favours a one‑goal advantage, and the scoreline suggests a tactical duel where transition threat from the back will dictate play. If the Japanese can maintain control in midfield and convert their set‑piece precision, they will shut down Tunisia’s counter‑attack engine and secure the three points they need to keep their group hopes alive.